Although it may not feel like it, the recession has been over for quite some time. In fact, 2011 has started off with a bang, the Dow Jones just crossed 12,000 and reached highs not seen since 2008, employers are beginning to hire, albeit slowly, but for many they’re just not feeling the optimism that 2011 is starting to sprout.
The Recession Ended When?
Most sources that I read seem to peg the end of the recession towards last summer (2010) sometime. However, the National Bureau of Economic Research indicated the the trough of the downturn occurred in June of 2009 so we’re clearly long gone from bottom, but at the same time, we’re still quite a distance from the potential top.
Are we There Yet?
The current economic situation reminds me of a family vacation in which the kid in the back seat is constantly saying “are we there yet, are we there yet?” From the majority of articles I’ve read online the consensus is that 2011 will continue with slow growth and that it won’t be until 2012 that we see a noticeable recovery in terms of jobs. Therefore, I think the kid in the backseat is going to become exceedingly annoying in 2011, but by 2012 we’ll hopefully reach the vacation destination.
To gain some perspective an article in US News discussed the time it took to recover from the 2001 recession:
“It took 21 months for employment to drift down to its low point and turn upward again. That might signal that we’re doing better now than during the “jobless recovery” that followed the 2001 recession.”
However, the unemployment rate for the 2001 recession hit a max at 6.3% while we’re currently sitting at about 9.1%
In the meantime the buzzwords may continue to be tax cuts, stimulus, and unemployment. Much like your neighbor loosing your job signals a recession, perhaps your neighbor finally finding a job this year will signal the realization of a recovery. “Are we there yet, may still be the question for 2011.”
Have you noticed an upswing in the economy where you live, or are things remaining stagnant?